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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-12-15T05:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-12-15T05:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18534/-1
CME Note: This CME is associated with an eruption near AR 12907 (near S25E45) which exhibits dimming and a small EUV wave visible in SDO AIA 193 beginning 2021-12-15T01:30Z. Northward deflection of source is apparent in SDO's field-of-view. UPDATE (2021-12-24T18:17Z): Field component rotation indicating a potential flux rope buried in the 2021-12-19 high speed stream arrival signature, from 2021-12-19T18:28Z to 2021-12-19T20:35Z, may possibly be associated with the combined arrival of CMEs 2021-12-14T17:38Z and 2021-12-15T05:00Z. The overall solar wind signatures for density, speed, and temperature are dominated by the 2021-12-19 high speed stream arrival, with only small changes that might support the field signature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-12-19T18:28Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-12-18T05:23Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 16.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.5 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: 77.77 hour(s)
Difference: 37.08 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2021-12-16T12:42Z

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